Reflecting on 2023: A Look Back at Our Predictions
Innovation has become a driving force in our rapidly evolving world, shaping the way we live and work. As we witnessed the remarkable rise of Generative AI and large language model-based machine learning (ML) platforms last year, it became undeniable that AI and ML have vast potential to revolutionize industries, job functions, and user experiences. Meanwhile, the ongoing effects of the global pandemic continued to drive us to reimagine how we utilize commercial spaces, restructure our downtown areas and cities, and adapt our lifestyles.
At Captains of Innovation, our team explored transformative initiatives in 2023, making bold predictions about their impact on society. (See our blog: “Visions of the Future.”) Today, we revisit those predictions, examining where our forecasts were on point, exploring the unexpected shifts from our early assumptions, and envisioning the continued evolution of these initiatives. Join us as we delve into topics such as rebuilding economies and cities, pioneering anti-pollution efforts, advocating for corporate involvement in sustainability, transforming agricultural practices, and embracing the dynamic changes in our downtown spaces.
“Changes in national security and new demands in life science and clean technology are rooting opportunities in places long overlooked. It's a really exciting time for many places in the United States…”
-Dougan Sherwood, Head of Innovation Districts
Prediction: We will see a growing call for a return to domestic manufacturing, with a focus on life science, pharmaceuticals, and essential technologies (e.g. microchips).
Dougan Sherwood — I still stand by my prediction! There are all sorts of public and private initiatives aimed at rebuilding economies of cities and states that were defined by manufacturing. What we build and how we build are likely never to be the same. However, changes in national security and new demands in life science and clean technology are rooting opportunities in places long overlooked. It's a really exciting time for many places in the United States where the quality of life is good and the cost of living has remained reasonable. There's a lot to be excited about for those cities and states that understand what makes them special and know how to work together.
Prediction: Specialized technologies for solving common pollution issues will be developed and become more attainable.
Maggie Cornelius — The urgent need for companies and societies to prioritize pollution reduction and sustainability is undeniable. Momentum is growing as companies repurpose waste materials into new products. From Girlfriend Collective's use of recycled water bottles and ocean plastics to H&M incentivizing clothing recycling. The behemoth that is the fashion industry is turning the tide of their own pollution by utilizing recycled materials, promoting product longevity, and cutting environmental waste.
Beauty and cosmetics brands are also embracing sustainability with recyclable packaging, refill options, and reduced packaging. E.L.F. cosmetics uses innovative sticker hangers for in-store displays, reducing paper packaging waste. Refillable products made from recyclable materials incentivize customers to reuse containers and enjoy discounts in exchange.
Consumers are increasingly receptive to sustainable products and processes, thus driving the mainstream adoption of such methods among corporations. Companies are prioritizing sustainability as public opinion evolves. The food and beverage industry is exploring ways to repurpose waste materials and agricultural byproducts to create new products and combat climate change.
Companies and societies can no longer ignore the imperative to reduce pollution and prioritize sustainability. Examples of innovative companies repurposing waste materials and the adoption of sustainable packaging demonstrate the momentum towards environmental responsibility. Sustainability is no longer a choice but a necessity for businesses and consumers aiming to build a better future.
Prediction: As small cities seek to rebuild 'Main Street' and leverage growth following the proliferation of hybrid work arrangements, secondary and tertiary cities will see growth in housing markets and adaptations in local economies.
Sarah Ivey — Though data for the full year is not yet available (most reporting covers up to Q3), 2023 proved to move a bit slower than originally anticipated by many market trend analysts. Due in part to the Fed's ongoing decisions to raise interest rates, as well as a pervasive fear of the "r" word becoming an economic reality, major decision making at both the individual and business level was approached with increased caution, especially as mortgage rates soared in the housing market.
However, updated census and economic data from the past few years does show newly popular areas of the US are on the rise, specifically the South East (particularly many smaller Florida cities) and the Mountain West (smaller cities in Utah and Idaho showing a lot of growth). This doesn't mean that the long-popular major metropolitan areas are necessarily shrinking — just that growth has slowed considerably as compared to years past.
“2023 did see more corporations turning to coalitions to support their sustainability efforts in order to mitigate risk, amplify their efforts, and generate new ideas.”
-Carrie Allen, Managing Partner
Prediction: Corporations will move from individual corporate sustainability initiatives toward coalition efforts that will have greater impact across the private and public sectors.
Carrie Allen — Indeed, 2023 did see more corporations turning to coalitions to support their sustainability efforts in order to mitigate risk, amplify their efforts, and generate new ideas. One significant example is that at the UN Climate Change Conference COP28 — held in Dubai in December 2023 — there was a lot of activity outside of the main conference where attendees made collaborative buying commitments, according to GreenBiz. Organizations like COI are also helping to bring corporations together around industry hubs with a focus on clean tech and climate change. Collectively pooled resources can go farther to develop solutions, support new innovations, and tackle ambitious goals.
Prediction: Global supply chain pressure will spur a new wave of activity to build resilient models of agriculture and embrace future-focused food production strategies.
Lindsay Clark — 2023 was a busy year for innovation in agriculture. Though some headlining technologies — AI-powered lasers that zap weeds, autonomous flying robots that harvest food — sound straight out of science fiction, innovations were predominantly driven by the need to address and mitigate the impacts of climate change. McKinsey published a report focused on the role sustainable agriculture must play to reach global decarbonization goals and build resilience. Bayer’s 2023 Farmer Voice surveyed 800 farmers in 8 different countries, and 71% of respondents said that climate change has already had a large impact on their farm.
It’s clear that now is the time to act. Leading change makers are focusing on farmer-first solutions and cross-industry innovation. Venture capital firm Innova Memphis raised a $40 million fund to bring “innovations farmers actually want” to market, with a focus on pre-seed, seed, and early-stage startups addressing the evolution of agriculture through automation and digitization technologies. E Tipu: The Boma Agri Summit in New Zealand partnered with the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IFAMA) to create a four-day hybrid food and fiber sector conference to enhance Oceania’s agriculture, aquaculture, and marine industries. MIT also hosted a webinar focused on innovation at the nexus of food, logistics, and materials.
Looking ahead, the US has an important opportunity to advance agricultural policy. The 2018 Farm Bill, which will remain in force through the end of 2023, will need to be negotiated and renewed in 2024. Ensuring that cross-industry learnings inform innovation and farmers have the means and support to leverage new technologies will help us to build more sustainable food systems that are resilient to climate change.